Exploring Climate-Driven Population Changes in Aster Leafhoppers Using Age-Structured Models

MorganLavenstein Bendall

University of California, Merced

"Exploring Climate-Driven Population Changes in Aster Leafhoppers Using Age-Structured Models"

Due to their diversity and abundance, insects play essential ecological roles, including crop pollination, nutrient cycling, and serving as a food source for other species. However, climate change is predicted to heavily impact insect populations, with some expected to decline by up to 18% globally by the end of the 2020s, raising concerns about the future health of the bioeconomy. To investigate these impacts, we conducted a temperature study on Aster leafhoppers (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae: Macrosteles quadrilineatus). Using five temperature conditions, we collected physiological data over a month to assess the impact of temperature on survival, maturation, and egg production. We then developed an age-structured population model to explore how environmental temperature influences insect fitness and mortality rates. Our model is parameterized with experimental data across various climate change scenarios, providing insights into the effects of rising temperatures on insect survival and population dynamics. This work highlights the cascading effects of climate change on ecological networks and emphasizes the importance of understanding insect responses to environmental stressors.
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