Modeling the spread of Hemlock Woolly Adelgid

KwameOsei Bonsu

Eastern Connecticut State University

"Modeling the spread of Hemlock Woolly Adelgid"

In this paper, a mathematical model is proposed to explain the interaction between Eastern Hemlock Trees and the invasive species Hemlock Woolly Adelgid. A system of reaction diffusion equations is used for this modeling exercise. There are at most three (3) steady states for the system of which the coexistent state is the only stable steady states for some parameter values. The model dynamics show that the solutions exhibit traveling wave solutions. In addition, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine the impact of model parameters. Sensitivity analysis suggests that the mortality rate of Eastern Hemlock Trees and the predation intensity of Hemlock Woolly Adelgid drive the dynamics of the interaction. Since Eastern Hemlock trees are foundation tress that provide shelter for several species they need to be protected for as long as possible. Based on the model dynamics and sensitivity analysis, it is postulated that selective and strategic removal of these trees will help curtail their destruction.
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