Estimating potential myrtle rust impacts to carbon sequestration in Australia

ChrisBaker

The University of Melbourne

"Estimating potential myrtle rust impacts to carbon sequestration in Australia"

The impacts of invasive alien pests and diseases are routinely estimated and measured in the context of agriculture, but less so in the context of biodiversity and ecosystem services. In this study, we developed a new 'contribution modelling' approach to systematically estimate the impacts of pests and diseases at a continent scale. We developed this method using a case study of myrtle rust in Australia. We estimated the potential reduction of carbon sequestration in Australia due to myrtle rust using various national and scientific ecological datasets. We found that myrtle rust could lead to over 3% loss in national annual carbon sequestration if it were to spread across Australia, or over $700 million AUD value loss. While developed using a case study, this model is designed to be readily adaptible to other species and their impact on other environmental assets. Our work shows the need to systematically compile the potential impacts and costs of invasive pests and diseases to the environment and ecosystem services globally, to support both biosecurity decision-making and climate-change related initiatives such as net-zero emissions targets and reforestation efforts.
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