Effective Vaccination Strategies Against Dengue in Brazil: A Mathematical Modeling Approach Incorporating Spatial and Demographic Heterogeneities

YoungsukKo

Yale University

"Effective Vaccination Strategies Against Dengue in Brazil: A Mathematical Modeling Approach Incorporating Spatial and Demographic Heterogeneities"

Brazil has experienced recurrent dengue outbreaks, with over 18 million reported cases since 2000 and a record-breaking surge in 2024. Notably, there has been a demographic shift in disease burden, with an increasing proportion of severe cases and fatalities among the elderly. Current vaccination strategies, including the WHO-recommended Qdenga® rollout for children, may not effectively address this emerging risk. This study employs a mathematical modeling approach to evaluate age-specific and geographically targeted vaccination strategies. A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR)-based model, calibrated using historical dengue data from Brazil's Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN), incorporates spatial heterogeneity across 27 states and demographic factors such as prior exposure and birth rates. We assess the impact of different vaccination strategies by estimating averted infections, hospitalizations, fatalities, and years of life lost. Preliminary findings indicate significant variation in the force of infection across states and suggest that prioritizing vaccination for elderly populations may substantially reduce severe disease burden. This modeling framework provides a quantitative basis for optimizing vaccination policies, with potential applications to other arboviral diseases and endemic settings worldwide.
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