An update estimation method for the stochastic epidemic models and their statistics analysis

viswanathanarunachalam

UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL DE COLOMBIA

"An update estimation method for the stochastic epidemic models and their statistics analysis"

Stochasticity is introduced to bring new insight into the modelling of population dynamics of diseases. Many systems, in nature, are subject to stochastic perturbations. In this talk, we present differential equations with stochastic perturbations and the updated data estimation method for estimating the transmission rate changes over time. The models for the population dynamics under SEIR epidemic models with stochastic perturbations are presented for the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in Bogota, Colombia. We performed computational experiments to interpret COVID-19 dynamics using actual data for the proposed models. We estimated the model parameters and updated their reported infected and recovered data estimates. (joint work with Andres Rios-Gutierrez )
Additional authors:

---