Mind over matter: balancing the benefits of COVID lockdowns with their cost on mental health

AsaRishel

University of Maryland, College Park

"Mind over matter: balancing the benefits of COVID lockdowns with their cost on mental health"

The COVID-19 pandemic took its toll not only on the physical health of those who lived through it, but also on their mental health. I will present a model of the direct and indirect effects of COVID-19 and the associated public policies on mental health. This is an SIRS model of COVID-19, with compartments for mild, acute, and chronic COVID-19 infections and additional compartments for populations with mental health symptoms. Parameters are determined based on fitting from the first wave of COVID-19 in the New York state population, which includes several changes in local government policy, e.g, lockdown orders, which have an effect on the rate at which mental health systems develop. Finally, an additional “delay” term is included in the model to account for the delay between lockdowns going into effect and individuals developing mental health symptoms. The goal of our analysis is to understand how government policy in response to a pandemic can seek to maximize the population's quality-adjusted life years (QALY), which is a measure not only of lifespan, but also the quality of the years lived. I will present some preliminary results suggesting the optimal timing and strength of government lockdown mandates.
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