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MEPI-13
A Mathematical Model of COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics in Kaduna State, Nigeria – Optimal Control Strategies with Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
SMB2025 Follow
Organizers:
Patrick Noah Okolo (Kaduna State University, Kaduna Nigeria), Abubakar S. Magaji, Kaduna State University, Kaduna Nigeria & Abraham Augustine Ahiaba,Bingham University, Karu, Nasarawa State, Nigeria
Description:
This study proposes a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission dynamics optimal control with cost-effectiveness analysis. The objective is to develop and analyze an optimal control for COVID-19 infection with two time-dependent control variables: face mask use and isolation, to understand the most efficient and economical strategies for curbing COVID-19 transmission in Kaduna State. Analysis of the model is carried out by applying optimal control theory along with Pontryagin’s Maximal Principle. The effect of implementing each of the two control interventions or a combination of the two strategies is demonstrated through numerical simulations of the optimal system. The most economical control strategy is computed by using the incremental cost-effectiveness method. The numerical results revealed that the application of the strategy that combines facemask use and isolation is efficient in averting the number of infections. Although, with limited resources, the strategy of isolation is strongly recommended, as this strategy is also confirmed to be the most cost-effective. Keywords: COVID-19 model; Basic Reproduction number; Sensitivity Analysis; Optimal control problem; cost-effectiveness analysis
Diversity Statement: