The Origins of Transient Bimodality

JamesHolehouse

The Santa Fe Institute

"The Origins of Transient Bimodality"

Deterministic and stochastic models, though often used to describe the same biological systems, can yield qualitatively different predictions. In particular, deterministic bistability does not necessarily imply stochastic bimodality, and vice versa. Multistability and multimodality are typically seen as indicators of distinct system behaviors, often inferred from stochastic simulation trajectories. In this talk, I explore the disconnect between probability modes and behavioral modes in the context of transient bimodality—also known as “adiabatic explosions”—which refers to metastable probability modes that do not correspond to distinct dynamical behaviors at the trajectory level. I present recent findings that link the emergence of these transient modes to a breakdown of the central limit theorem, specifically in the context of first-passage time distributions to absorbing states. I conclude by discussing how transient bimodality challenges conventional interpretations of system behavior in biological contexts and highlight conditions under which this phenomenon becomes particularly relevant.
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