Spatiotemporal modelling the spread of invasive pests across Great Britain

KaitlynRies

Newcastle University

"Spatiotemporal modelling the spread of invasive pests across Great Britain"

Invasive species pose a significant threat to biodiversity, the environment, and the economy. They are expensive to manage and monitor, in the UK alone the estimated annual cost to the economy is £4 billion. The spread of invasive species is increasing at unprecedented rates, as a result of expanding human trade networks and climate change. One invasive species of note is the oak processionary moth (OPM), which became established in the UK in 2006 through accidental importation. OPMs are harmful defoliators of oak trees, leaving them vulnerable to other stressors and diseases. They are also harmful to humans; the caterpillars have urticating hairs which can cause breathing difficulties. The eradication of OPM in the UK has been deemed unfeasible with the current management strategy focused on containing their spread. In partnership with Fera Science, we are combining mathematical and statistical models to describe and predict the spread of OPM across the UK and to inform future management strategies. This poster will showcase our work on an agent-based (individual-based) modelling approach for capturing OPM spread across the South-East of England. This model uses a lattice-based grid where a cell is either infested or susceptible (analogous to an SI model) to OPM, with cells becoming infested based on their distance to infested cells under the assumption of different dispersal kernels. We can then use the model to guide new management strategies and scenario test which may allow better containment.
Additional authors:

---