ECOP-08 Contributed Talks

Marwa Tuffaha

York University

"The Role of Environmental Stress in Promoting Mutators Through Evolutionary Rescue"

Evolutionary rescue occurs when a population facing environmental stress avoids extinction by rapidly acquiring beneficial mutations. While higher mutation rates can enhance rescue, the role of mutators—genotypes with elevated mutation rates—remains unclear. We develop a theoretical framework and use stochastic simulations to investigate how mutators emerge and fix under selective pressure. Our results show that mutators cannot persist in stable environments but are favored when environmental deterioration occurs, with their fixation probability influenced by the speed of environmental change and wildtype mutation rates. Pre-existing mutators further increase rescue likelihood, particularly under rapid environmental shifts. These findings provide insights into antibiotic resistance, cancer evolution, and adaptation to climate change by highlighting how environmental stress shapes mutation rate evolution.

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Chris Baker

The University of Melbourne

"Estimating potential myrtle rust impacts to carbon sequestration in Australia"

The impacts of invasive alien pests and diseases are routinely estimated and measured in the context of agriculture, but less so in the context of biodiversity and ecosystem services. In this study, we developed a new 'contribution modelling' approach to systematically estimate the impacts of pests and diseases at a continent scale. We developed this method using a case study of myrtle rust in Australia. We estimated the potential reduction of carbon sequestration in Australia due to myrtle rust using various national and scientific ecological datasets. We found that myrtle rust could lead to over 3% loss in national annual carbon sequestration if it were to spread across Australia, or over $700 million AUD value loss. While developed using a case study, this model is designed to be readily adaptible to other species and their impact on other environmental assets. Our work shows the need to systematically compile the potential impacts and costs of invasive pests and diseases to the environment and ecosystem services globally, to support both biosecurity decision-making and climate-change related initiatives such as net-zero emissions targets and reforestation efforts.

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Sureni Wickramasooriya

Univeresity of California - Davis

"Dynamical Analysis of Additional Food Models with Mutual Interaction in Predator-Prey Systems for Pest Control"

The supplementation of additional food (AF) to introduced predators has been explored as a strategy to enhance pest control. However, AF models with prey-dependent functional responses can lead to unbounded predator growth. To address this, an AF model incorporating mutual interference has been proposed, demonstrating that pest eradication is feasible when the AF quantity ξξ exceeds a threshold function of the interference parameter ϵϵ. In this study, we revisit and extend this model, uncovering novel dynamical behaviors. We show that pest eradication occurs within a narrower AF range and can be bi-stable or globally attracting, arising through a saddle-node bifurcation. Additionally, we identify Hopf and global homoclinic bifurcations, revealing a unique dynamic where the pest extinction state becomes an 'almost' global attractor. This is the first analytical proof of such a structure in AF models, providing insights into bio-control strategies under varying predator interference conditions.

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