'The rising liver disease epidemic: Predicting MASLD to MASH prevalence in the US using deterministic mathematical modeling'

Background: Mathematical models are useful tools for investigating the epidemiology of metabolic diseases such as metabolic dysfunction associated-steatotic liver disease (MASLD), formerly known as non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. MASLD is a significant global health concern with increasing prevalence in the United States, substantially impacting patient well-being, healthcare systems, and economic costs. MASLD can be a progressive disease leading to metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) in severe cases, which can develop into cirrhosis, fibrosis, late-stage liver disease, or hepatocellular carcinoma. Aim: We use epidemiological modeling to analyze and simulate the progression dynamics of MASLD to MASH cirrhosis and investigate the potential effect of treatment along different stages of disease progression on the global prevalence and incidence of MASH cirrhosis. Methods: We collected data from the literature on the prevalence and incidence of patients with MASLD in the US. We developed a compartmental mathematical model, which we analyzed and fitted to the collected data. The parameterized model is used to predict future prevalence of MASLD progression considering the treatment effects. Results: We determined the fundamental properties of our linear model such as the analytical solution, the existence of positive solutions, positively invariant set, equilibrium state of our model, and biological feasibility of the disease progression. Furthermore, we calculated the critical drug efficacies for each population. Conclusions: The rising prevalence and burden of MASH illustrates the need for effective treatment and diagnostic tools in monitoring and managing liver disease. Using the parameterized model, we can identify the most efficacious point of intervention to reduce cirrhosis in the liver disease population. We then present our results in the context of previous computational, statistical, and agent-based models of progressive liver disease.

'The rising liver disease epidemic: Predicting MASLD to MASH prevalence in the US using deterministic mathematical modeling'

Monday, July 14 from 6:00pm - 9:00pm in

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Angela Tower

"'The rising liver disease epidemic: Predicting MASLD to MASH prevalence in the US using deterministic mathematical modeling'"

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