Confinement Tonicity Determines Long-Term Epidemics

Alexis Erich Almocera

Department of Mathematics, Physics and Computer Science, College of Science and Mathematics, University of the Philippines Mindanao

"Confinement Tonicity Determines Long-Term Epidemics"

Self-isolation and stay-at-home measures are crucial for curbing the spread of contagious pathogens while vaccines are being developed. Furthermore, research during the 2019-22 coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) emphasizes that proper enforcement and timely lifting of these measures are vital for effective disease management. In this context, we analyzed a simple dynamical system to understand how an epidemic progresses by isolating susceptible individuals (confinement) and reintroducing them to infection (deconfinement). This model captures the overall magnitude and direction of flows between confined and deconfined groups—akin to osmosis—leading to a dimensionless quantity defined as confinement tonicity. Our mathematical analysis suggests that confinement tonicity influences the final epidemic size, providing insights into careful quarantine management for effective disease control.

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