During the COVID-19 pandemic, we endeavored to keep pace with understanding of biological phenomena that might affect SARS-CoV-2 transmission by modifying SEIR metapopulation models structured via age, location, or strain. With probabilities of infection on contact and initial conditions from a serial, cross-sectional survey of antibodies to nucleocapsid protein among commercial laboratory clients throughout the United States and all save one other parameter from the literature, our age- and location-structured model reproduced seroprevalence from this and another nationwide survey, of antibodies to spike as well as nucleocapsid protein among blood-donors, remarkably well.
Because fit parameters are conditional on model formulae and other parameter values, we recommend that mechanistic modelers base theirs on first principles, estimate them from accurate independent observations, or source them from the primary, not the modeling literature. In this talk, I will describe our descriptive model of seroprevalence by age and time and then our calculation, via first principles, of the age-specific forces of infection, attack rates and -- given information from a contact study -- probabilities of infection on contact. Because those parameters were not estimated by fitting our transmission model to any observations, others could use them too.
Mathematical Epidemiology Subgroup (MEPI)
Ad hoc subgroup meeting room(reserved for subgroup activities):TBD
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Sub-group minisymposia
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MEPI-01
(Part 1)
Scenario Modeling to Inform Public Policymaking
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MEPI-01
(Part 1)
Organized by: Zhilan Feng (National Science Foundation), John W Glasser, The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
Note: this minisymposia has multiple sessions. The other session is: and Part-2.
- John W Glasser The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) "Validating a SARS-CoV-2 transmission model"
- Wendy S Parker Virginia Tech "Testing the adequacy-for-purpose of dynamical models"
- Michael Y. Li University of Alberta "Why do models calibrated with data need to be validated?"
- Marie Betsy Varughese Institute of Health Economics "Real-time Validation of Model Projections of Seasonal Influenza in Alberta"
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MEPI-05
(Part 1)
Mathematical Modelling of Human Behaviour
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MEPI-05
(Part 1)
Organized by: Iain Moyles (York University), Rebecca Tyson, University of British Columbia Okanagan
Note: this minisymposia has multiple sessions. The other session is: and Part-2.
- Iain Moyles York University "Fear dynamics in a mathematical model of disease transmission"
- Md. Mijanur Rahman University of British Columbia Okanagan "The role of opinion dynamics in generating multiple epidemic waves"
- Azadeh Aghaeeyan Brock University "Understanding the Decision-Making of Late COVID-19 Vaccine Adopters"
- Bouchra Nasri University of Montreal "Mathematical Modelling of Pregnant Women Co-infected with HIV and ZIKV: A Case Study in Endemic Latin American and Caribbean Countries"
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MEPI-01
(Part 2)
Scenario Modeling to Inform Public Policymaking
Timeblock: MS02
MEPI-01
(Part 2)
Organized by: Zhilan Feng (National Science Foundation), John W Glasser, The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
Note: this minisymposia has multiple sessions. The other session is: and Part-1.
- Junling Ma University of Victoria "Assess the effectiveness of Contact Tracing during the early stage of a pandemic"
- Sen Pei Columbia University "Addressing the challenge of imperfect observation processes in epidemic modeling"
- Troy Day Queens University "Social norms and the spread of infectious diseases"
- Zhilan Feng National Science Foundation "Mechanistic models are hypotheses"
Timeblock: MS02
MEPI-06
(Part 1)
Recent Advances in Dynamics of Human Behavior and Epidemics
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MEPI-06
(Part 1)
Organized by: Abba Gumel (University of Maryland), Alex Safsten, Alice Oveson (both University of Maryland)
Note: this minisymposia has multiple sessions. The other sessions are: Part-2, and Part-3.
- Navid Ghaffarzadegan Virginia Tech "Pandemics and People: Modeling Outbreaks with Behavior in the Loop"
- Jane Heffernan York University "Modelling Positive and Negative Behaviour Change"
- Sefah Frimpong University of Waterloo "COVID-19 Coupled Behaviour-Disease Model"
- Binod Pant Northeastern University "Analyzing human behavior data and modeling the impact of human behavior on SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics"
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MEPI-12
Incorporating control into infectious disease models
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MEPI-12
Organized by: Michael A. Robert (Virginia Tech)
- Stacey Smith? University of Ottawa "Could COVID-19 mask and vaccine mandates have made a difference if they were rolled out earlier?"
- Indunil M. Hewage Washington State University "The population-level impact of COVID-19 vaccines: Investigating the different aspects of vaccine effectiveness."
- Carrie Manore Los Alamos National Labs "Designing Models and Forecasts with Non-Traditional Data to Assess Interventions and Prevention"
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MEPI-03
Delayed and structured dynamics of infection and epidemic models
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MEPI-03
Organized by: Tyler Cassidy (University of Leeds), Tony Humphries (McGill University)
- Tianyu Cheng York University "Recurrent patterns of disease spread post the acute phase of a pandemic: insights from a coupled system of a differential equation for disease transmission and a delayed algebraic equation for behavioural adaptation"
- Tony Humphries McGill University "An immuno-epidemiological model with threshold delay"
- Andrea Pugliese University of Trento "A multi-season epidemic model with random drift in immunity and transmissibility"
- Tyler Cassidy University of Leeds "Multi-stability in an infectious disease model with waning and boosting of immunity"
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MEPI-08
(Part 1)
Modeling Complex Adaptive Systems in Life and Social Sciences
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MEPI-08
(Part 1)
Organized by: Yun Kang (Arizona State University), Tao Feng, Yangzhou University & University of Alberta
Note: this minisymposia has multiple sessions. The other sessions are: Part-2, and Part-3.
- Gail SK Wolkowicz McMaster University "Analysis of a New Discrete Two-Species Competition Model"
- Zhisheng Shuai University of Central Florida "A Tale of Two Incidence Functions in Epidemiological Models"
- Qi Deng York University "Simulating the impact of a chlamydia vaccine in the US: An agent-based modeling approach"
- Hermann J Eberl University of Guelph "Oscillations in a simple model of quorum sensing controlled EPS production in biofilms"
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MEPI-10
(Part 1)
Mathematical Epidemiology: Infectious disease modeling across time, space, and scale
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MEPI-10
(Part 1)
Organized by: Meredith Greer, Prashant Kumar Srivastava, Michael Robert (Bates College), Prashant Kumar Srivastava (Indian Institute of Technology, Patna) and Michael Robert (Virginia Tech)
Note: this minisymposia has multiple sessions. The other session is: and Part-2.
- Iulia Martina Bulai University of Torino, Italy "Modeling fast information and slow(er) disease spreading"
- Konstantinos Mamis University of Washington "Modeling correlated uncertainties in stochastic compartmental models"
- Elizabeth Amona Virginia Commonwealth University "Essential Workers at Risk: An Agent-Based Model with Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification"
- Dongju Lim KAIST "History-dependent framework of infectious disease dynamics"
Timeblock: MS03
MEPI-11
(Part 1)
Advances in infectious disease modelling: towards a unifying framework to support the needs of small and large jurisdictions
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MEPI-11
(Part 1)
Organized by: Amy Hurford (Memorial University), Michael Li, Public Health Agency of Canada
Note: this minisymposia has multiple sessions. The other sessions are: Part-2, and Part-3.
- Michael WZ Li Public Health Agency of Canada "Modeling and Prospects to Support Small Jurisdiction Public Health in Canada"
- Wendy Xie National Collaborating Centre for Infectious Diseases "Lessons learned from the In the Equation Workshop: Towards Indigenous-led infectious disease modelling"
- James Watmough University of New Brunswick "Predicting population level immune landscapes in small communities."
- Abdou Fofana and Amy Hurford Memorial University "Fitting and counterfactual scenarios for epidemiological data describing intermittent periods of travel-related cases and community spread"
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MEPI-07
(Part 1)
Recent Trends in Mathematics of Vector-borne Diseases and Control
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MEPI-07
(Part 1)
Organized by: Abba Gumel (University of Maryland), Alex Safsten, Arnaja Mitra (both University of Maryland)
Note: this minisymposia has multiple sessions. The other sessions are: Part-2, and Part-3.
- Michael Robert Virginia Tech "Climate-informed mitigation of mosquito-borne disease: the case of dengue in an emerging environment"
- Salihu Musa University of Maryland "Mathematical modeling of the geo-spatial dynamics of Lyme disease under various climate change projection scenarios"
- Kathleen Hoffman University of Maryland Baltimore County "Parameter Sensitivity, Identifiability, & Estimation for a Data-Driven Model of Malaria"
- Abba Gumel University of Maryland "Recent advances and challenges in the mathematics of malaria dynamics"
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MEPI-08
(Part 2)
Modeling Complex Adaptive Systems in Life and Social Sciences
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MEPI-08
(Part 2)
Organized by: Yun Kang (Arizona State University), Tao Feng, Yangzhou University & University of Alberta
Note: this minisymposia has multiple sessions. The other sessions are: Part-1, and Part-3.
- Yaqi Chen Harbin Institute of Technology & University of Alberta "Well-Posedness and Dynamical Behavior of a Two-Species Reaction-Diffusion Model with Nonlocal Perception"
- Shan Gao University of Alberta "Early detection of disease outbreaks and non-outbreaks using incidence data: A framework using feature-based time series classification and machine learning"
- Bo-Wei Qin Fudan University "Polarization Does Not Necessarily Imply Conflict: Modeling and Modulating Pattern Boundaries of Opinion Dynamics"
- Joan Ponce Arizona State University "Extreme geographic misalignment of healthcare resources and HIV treatment deserts in Malawi"
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MEPI-05
(Part 2)
Mathematical Modelling of Human Behaviour
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MEPI-05
(Part 2)
Organized by: Iain Moyles (York University), Rebecca Tyson, University of British Columbia Okanagan
Note: this minisymposia has multiple sessions. The other session is: and Part-1.
- Sarah Machado-Marques York University "Considering the effects of pair formation dynamics on mpox and HIV co-infection in the gbMSM community"
- Bridgette Amoako University of Guelph "Sexual Behaviour and Mpox Transmission in an Agent Based Model"
- Clark KendrickGo Ateneo de Manila University "Exploring Mathematical Techniques in Collective Behaviour and Decision Making in Animal Groups"
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MEPI-07
(Part 2)
Recent Trends in Mathematics of Vector-borne Diseases and Control
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MEPI-07
(Part 2)
Organized by: Abba Gumel (University of Maryland), Alex Safsten, Arnaja Mitra (both University of Maryland)
Note: this minisymposia has multiple sessions. The other sessions are: Part-1, and Part-3.
- Katharine Gurski Howard University "Building a Model for Seasonal Malaria Chemoprevention and Drug Resistance"
- Yves Dumont French Agricultural Research Centre for International Development "Reducing nuisances or minimizing epidemiological risks: which is the best choice with the Sterile Insect Technique?"
- Alex Safsten University of Maryland "Leveraging inter-species competition to improve the effectiveness of the sterile insect technique"
- Zhoulin Qu University of Texas San Antonio "Multistage spatial model for informing release of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes as disease control"
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MEPI-08
(Part 3)
Modeling Complex Adaptive Systems in Life and Social Sciences
Timeblock: MS05
MEPI-08
(Part 3)
Organized by: Yun Kang (Arizona State University), Tao Feng, Yangzhou University & University of Alberta
Note: this minisymposia has multiple sessions. The other sessions are: Part-1, and Part-2.
- Matthew Wheeler University of Florida "Linking Network Architecture to Dynamic Behavior"
- Xingfu Zou University of Western Ontario "Infection forces mediated by behaviour changes with demonstration by a DDE model"
- Daniel B. Reeves Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center "Modeling HIV reservoir ecology and selection through the lens of CD4+ T cell kinetics"
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MEPI-09
Integrating Health Economics and Infectious Disease Modelling: Methods and Examples for Informing Policy
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MEPI-09
Organized by: Dr. Marie Varughese (Institute of Health Economics and University of Alberta), Dr. Ellen Rafferty (erafferty@ihe.ca)– Institute of Health Economics and University of Alberta
Note: this minisymposia has been accepted, but the abstracts have not yet been finalized.
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MEPI-04
Recent advances in Epidemic theory
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MEPI-04
Organized by: Nir Gavish (Technion)
- Nir Gavish Technion Israel Institute of Technology "Optimal vaccination for contagious diseases with seasonal transmission"
- Amit Huppert Tel Aviv University "Modeling Predation in Bacterial Interactions"
- Byul Nim Kim Kyung Hee University "Empirical and Spatiotemporal Approaches to Effective Reproduction Number Estimation: Insights from Network and Mobility Models in South Korea"
- Kyeongah Nah National Institute for Mathematical Sciences "Age-structured modeling of tuberculosis in South Korea and insights for national control strategies"
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MEPI-06
(Part 2)
Recent Advances in Dynamics of Human Behavior and Epidemics
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MEPI-06
(Part 2)
Organized by: Abba Gumel (University of Maryland), Alex Safsten, Alice Oveson (both University of Maryland)
Note: this minisymposia has multiple sessions. The other sessions are: Part-1, and Part-3.
- Mallory Harris University of Maryland "Risk (Mis)estimation and Population Heterogeneity Shape Infectious Disease Dynamics"
- Christian Parkinson Michigan State University "Optimal Control of a Reaction-Diffusion Epidemic Model with Noncompliance"
- Zitao He University of Waterloo "From Sentiment to Spread: Homophily and Early Warnings in Epidemic Dynamics"
- Alice Oveson University of Maryland "Modeling Racial and Age-Structured Transmission Dynamics with Empirical Contact Data"
Timeblock: MS06
MEPI-10
(Part 2)
Mathematical Epidemiology: Infectious disease modeling across time, space, and scale
Timeblock: MS06
MEPI-10
(Part 2)
Organized by: Meredith Greer, Prashant Kumar Srivastava, Michael Robert (Bates College), Prashant Kumar Srivastava (Indian Institute of Technology, Patna) and Michael Robert (Virginia Tech)
Note: this minisymposia has multiple sessions. The other session is: and Part-1.
- Lihong Zhao Kennesaw State University "Modeling the Dynamics of Legionnaries' Disease and Management Strategies"
- Tinashe Byron Gashirai (Postdoctoral Fellow) University of Idaho "A theory of risk perception in shaping human behavior to policy compliance during outbreaks"
- Claudia Pio Ferreira Unesp, IBB "Mathematical epidemiology and control of hospital-associated infections"
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MEPI-02
(Part 1)
Modeling Complex Dynamics in Biological Processes: From Cellular Mechanics to Population-Level Dynamics
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MEPI-02
(Part 1)
Organized by: Folashade B. Agusto (University of Kansas), Chidozie Williams Chukwu
Note: this minisymposia has multiple sessions. The other session is: and Part-2.
- Blessing Emerenini Rochester Institute of Technology, USA "Integrative Triple Therapy Against Bacterial Infections: Exploring Synergistic Dynamics"
- Olusegun Otunuga Augusta University, USA "Stochastic Modeling and First-Passage-Time Analysis of Oncological Time Metrics with Dynamic Tumor Barriers"
- Nourridine Siewe Rochester Institute of Technology, USA "A mathematical model of obesity-induced type 2 diabetes and efficacy of anti-diabetic weight reducing drug"
- Joan Ponce University of Arizona, USA "Impact of DARC Polymorphism on P. vivax Transmission Dynamics"
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MEPI-06
(Part 3)
Recent Advances in Dynamics of Human Behavior and Epidemics
Timeblock: MS08
MEPI-06
(Part 3)
Organized by: Abba Gumel (University of Maryland), Alex Safsten, Alice Oveson (both University of Maryland)
Note: this minisymposia has multiple sessions. The other sessions are: Part-1, and Part-2.
- Jacques Bélair Université de Montréal "Knowledge as an Infection: Modeling Variable Compliance with Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs)"
- Asa Rishel University of Maryland "Mind Over Matter: Balancing the Benefits of COVID Lockdowns with Their Cost on Mental Health"
- Bryce Morsky Florida State University "Social Dynamics, Information Spread, and Behavioral Responses in Epidemic Modeling"
- Claus Kadelka Iowa State University "Adaptive Human Behavior and Delays in Information Availability Autonomously Modulate Epidemic Waves"
Timeblock: MS08
MEPI-11
(Part 2)
Advances in infectious disease modelling: towards a unifying framework to support the needs of small and large jurisdictions
Timeblock: MS08
MEPI-11
(Part 2)
Organized by: Amy Hurford (Memorial University), Michael Li, Public Health Agency of Canada
Note: this minisymposia has multiple sessions. The other sessions are: Part-1, and Part-3.
- Sally Otto University of British Columbia "Coupled dynamics and the challenge of estimating Rt in small jurisdictions"
- Julien Arino University of Manitoba "Introduced cases and spread of infection in a community"
- Jude Kong University of Toronto "Human Behavior and Epidemic Dynamics: Adaptive vs. Robust Control Strategies in Shaping Outbreak Outcomes"
- Pouria Ramazi Brock University "Modeling Behavioral Heterogeneity to Optimize Vaccine Uptake Through Tailored Communication"
Timeblock: MS09
MEPI-02
(Part 2)
Modeling Complex Dynamics in Biological Processes: From Cellular Mechanics to Population-Level Dynamics
Timeblock: MS09
MEPI-02
(Part 2)
Organized by: Folashade B. Agusto (University of Kansas), Chidozie Williams Chukwu
Note: this minisymposia has multiple sessions. The other session is: and Part-1.
- Chidozie Williams Chukwu DePaul University, USA "Dynamic Multi-country Modeling for Forecasting and Controlling Tube"
- Hewan Shemtaga, Selim Sukhtaiev, and Dr. Wenxian Shen Auburn University, USA "Logistic Keller-Segel chemotaxis models on compact graphs"
- Ousmane Seydi University Le Havre, France "Growth Bounds and Threshold Dynamics in Periodic Structured Population Models"
- Daniel Cooney University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, USA "Modeling Cross-Scale Evolutionary Dynamics"
Timeblock: MS09
MEPI-07
(Part 3)
Recent Trends in Mathematics of Vector-borne Diseases and Control
Timeblock: MS09
MEPI-07
(Part 3)
Organized by: Abba Gumel (University of Maryland), Alex Safsten, Arnaja Mitra (both University of Maryland)
Note: this minisymposia has multiple sessions. The other sessions are: Part-1, and Part-2.
- Casey O'Brien North Carolina State University "Modeling a Novel Gene Drive That Targets Immune Responses"
- Jackson Champer Peking University "Suppression gene drive for mosquito control: large scale spatial models and impact on disease transmission"
Timeblock: MS09
MEPI-11
(Part 3)
Advances in infectious disease modelling: towards a unifying framework to support the needs of small and large jurisdictions
Timeblock: MS09
MEPI-11
(Part 3)
Organized by: Amy Hurford (Memorial University), Michael Li, Public Health Agency of Canada
Note: this minisymposia has multiple sessions. The other sessions are: Part-1, and Part-2.
- Wade McDonald University of Saskatchewan "Use of Synthetic Data to Improve Wastewater-based Epidemiological Models in a Small Jurisdiction"
- Matthew Betti Mount Allison University "Modeling healthcare demand during a disease outbreak"
- Sicheng Zhao McMaster University "Edge-based Modeling for Disease Transmission on Random Graphs – an Application to Mitigate a Syphilis Outbreak"
- Caroline Mburu British Columbia Centre for Disease Control/Simon Fraser University "Wastewater-based modelling for Mpox surveillance among gbMSM in BC"
Sub-group contributed talks
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MEPI-01
MEPI Subgroup Contributed Talks
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MEPI-01
- Lindsay Keegan University of Utah "A theoretical framework to quantify the tradeoff between individual and population benefits of expanded antibiotic use"
- Youngsuk Ko Yale University "Effective Vaccination Strategies Against Dengue in Brazil: A Mathematical Modeling Approach Incorporating Spatial and Demographic Heterogeneities"
- Francisca Olajide University of Ottawa "From process to structure of EWSs"
- Marwa Tuffaha York University "Counterfactual COVID-19: Modeling Alternative Mitigation and Vaccination Policies for Canada"
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MEPI-01
MEPI Subgroup Contributed Talks
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MEPI-01
- Zitao He University of Waterloo "Leveraging deep learning and social heterogeneity to detect early warning signals of disease outbreaks"
- Soyoung Kim National Institute for Mathematical Sciences (NIMS) "Optimizing Vaccine Efficacy Trials for Emerging Respiratory Epidemics: A Mathematical Modeling Approach"
- Jonggul Lee National Institute for Mathematical Sciences "Quantifying Shifts in Social Contact Patterns: A Post-Covid Analysis in South Korea"
- Alexander Meyer University of Notre Dame "Estimating pathogen introduction rates from serological data to characterize past and future patterns of transmission"
- Andrew Omame York University Toronto, Canada "Pre-exposure vaccination in the high-risk population is crucial in controlling mpox resurgence in Canada"
- Rosemary Omoregie University of Benin, Nigeria "Mathematical Model For Dengue and its Co-Endemicity with Chikungunya virus"
- Binod Pant Northeastern University "Could malaria mosquitoes be controlled by periodic release of transgenic mosquitocidal Metarhizium pingshaense? A mathematical modeling approach"
- Soyoung Park University of Maryland "Mathematical assessment of the roles of vaccination and Pap screening on the incidence of HPV and related cancers in South Korea"
- somdata sina IISER Kolkata, India "Compositional Complexity in Genomic Patterns and Classification"
- Woldegebriel Assefa Woldegerima York University "Singular Perturbation Analysis of a Two-Time Scale Model of Vector-Borne Disease"
- Sarita Bugalia The University of Arizona "Modeling the Impact of Social Behavior, Under-Reporting, and Resources on Tuberculosis During COVID-19"
- Qi Deng York University "Exploring the potential impact of a chlamydia vaccine in the US population using an agent-based model"
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MEPI-02
MEPI Subgroup Contributed Talks
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MEPI-02
- Rosemary Omoregie University of Benin, Nigeria "Mathematical Model For Dengue and its Co-Endemicity with Chikungunya virus"
- Binod Pant Northeastern University "Could malaria mosquitoes be controlled by periodic release of transgenic mosquitocidal Metarhizium pingshaense? A mathematical modeling approach"
- Soyoung Park University of Maryland "Mathematical assessment of the roles of vaccination and Pap screening on the incidence of HPV and related cancers in South Korea"
- somdata sina IISER Kolkata, India "Compositional Complexity in Genomic Patterns and Classification"
- Woldegebriel Assefa Woldegerima York University "Singular Perturbation Analysis of a Two-Time Scale Model of Vector-Borne Disease"
Timeblock: CT02
MEPI-03
MEPI Subgroup Contributed Talks
Timeblock: CT02
MEPI-03
- Sarita Bugalia The University of Arizona "Modeling the Impact of Social Behavior, Under-Reporting, and Resources on Tuberculosis During COVID-19"
- Qi Deng York University "Exploring the potential impact of a chlamydia vaccine in the US population using an agent-based model"
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MEPI-01
MEPI Subgroup Contributed Talks
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MEPI-01
- Woldegebriel Assefa Woldegerima York University "The Mathematics of Deep Neural Networks with Application in Predicting the Spread of Avian Influenza Through Disease-Informed Neural Networks (DINNs)"
- Jongmin Lee Department of Mathematics, Konkuk University "How to Deal with the Health-economy Dilemma during a Pandemic: Research Framework and User-interactive Dashboard"
- Asa Rishel University of Maryland, College Park "Mind over matter: balancing the benefits of COVID lockdowns with their cost on mental health"
- Arsene Brice zotsa ngoufack Université du Québec à Montréal "Stochastic epidemic model with memory on the previous infection and with varying infectivity and waning immunity"
- Phoebe Asplin University of Warwick "Estimating the strength of symptom propagation from synthetic data"
- Emma Fairbanks University of warwick "Semi-field versus experimental hut trials: Comparing methods for novel insecticide-treated net evaluation for malaria control"
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MEPI-02
MEPI Subgroup Contributed Talks
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MEPI-02
- Emma Fairbanks University of warwick "Semi-field versus experimental hut trials: Comparing methods for novel insecticide-treated net evaluation for malaria control"
Sub-group poster presentations
MEPI Posters