Probability of early infection extinction depends linearly on the virus clearance rate

We provide an in silico study of stochastic extinction of virus infection. Our work considers a nonspecific antiviral drug that increases the virus clearance rate, and we investigate the effect of this drug on early infection extinction. Synthetic data is generated by a hybrid multiscale framework that applies both continuous and discrete mathematical approaches -- virus spread is described by a partial differential equation, while the cell population is grasped by an agent-based model. The central result we present is the observation, analysis, and explanation of a linear relationship between the virus clearance rate and the probability of early infection extinction. The derivation behind this simple relationship is based on the theory of branching processes.

Probability of early infection extinction depends linearly on the virus clearance rate

Monday, July 14 at 6:00pm

Nora Juhasz

"Probability of early infection extinction depends linearly on the virus clearance rate"

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