Unraveling the Complex Role of Climate in Dengue Dynamics

Olive Cawiding

Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST)

"Unraveling the Complex Role of Climate in Dengue Dynamics"

Dengue fever has emerged as an increasingly alarming public health challenge, further complicated by the impacts of climate change on control efforts. Yet, the full extent of climate's impact on dengue incidence remains poorly understood. To investigate this, we employed an advanced causal inference method to 16 regions in the Philippines, selected for their diverse climatic conditions. Unlike previous methods for detecting regulatory relationships, this method is capable of detecting nonlinear and joint effects of temperature and rainfall to dengue incidence. We found that temperature consistently increased dengue incidence throughout all the regions, while rainfall effects differed depending on location. Further analysis showed that this pattern is due to the variation in dry season length, a factor previously overlooked. Specifically, our results showed that regions with low variation in dry season length experience a negative impact of rainfall on dengue incidence likely due to strong flushing effect on mosquito habitats, while regions with high variation in dry season length experience a positive impact, likely due to increased mosquito breeding sites. This study offers a fresh perspective on the relationship between climate and dengue incidence, emphasizing the need for tailored prevention strategies based on local climate conditions.

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